By Gorráiz Germán López
Following three decades of war, Afghanistan is virtually a corrupt failed state which barely exceeds the city limits of its capital, Kabul, and where widespread insecurity has fostered the private security business which employs some 43,000 men (almost 9,000 civilians are said to have died between 2007 and 2010 according to an annual report from the United Nations Assistance Mission to Afghanistan, UNAMA). In addition, of the over 60,000 million euros of economic aid which have flowed in from abroad since 2002, only 12% is reckoned to have been invested in improving the lives of the population (42% of which is below the poverty threshold and 33% of which is seriously at risk of starvation), serving the remainder to feed corruption or finance private armies (according to a The Wall Street Journal report which cites anonymous Afghan and America officials as sources, “High ranking Afghan officials might well have deviated over 3,000 million dollars to foreign financial shelters since 2006”).
As to opium crops, according to the UN’s Bureau of Drugs and Crime, the arrival of the USA has led to a considerable increase in poppy fields as 93% of opioids in the world market in 2007 came from Afghanistan, and the area currently devoted to growing opium in the Afghan territory exceeds coca crops in Latin America, with opium and coca serving as the main source of financing for a CIA which has become a major drug transnational. Thus, a billion dollars from opium trafficking since 2004 is said to have been used to finance the war on all fronts, although it is important to stress that the income for the Taliban from opium only represents 5% of the total amount the business generates, most of which is whitewashed on Wall Street by front organizations linked to the CIA and to former Afghan president Karzai, who has become an “opium boss”. However, following the Karzai era after the Afghan presidential elections of 2014, we shall be witnessing the formation of an Islamist Coalition Government between Pashtun and Taliban which will continue to protect and supervise the US, thus ensuring its presence in a country considered by the US High Command as “a vital geostrategic piece in the Middle East puzzle”, (reconvened as a training and consultancy mission for the Afghan Armed Forces, now thinned down to 12,000 members), all part of the USA’s strategy to implement the theory of “constructive chaos” in the Middle East and end up destabilizing Zardari’s government in Pakistan.
A coup against Zardari?
Even though the Taliban have been expelled from some of their strongholds in the south of Afghanistan, fighters belonging to the Afghan insurgent group Haqqani (akin to the Taliban) continue to perpetrate cross border raids from their Pakistani bases located just across the eastern border from Afghanistan.
Thus, according to un.org, Sirajuddin Jallaloudine Haqqani appears to be one of the most prominent and influential leaders of the Haqqani network, (a group of fighters cooperating closely with the Taliban and al-Qaeda) and is said to have been one of the network’s main commanders since 2004, the natural heir of the charisma and authority of his father, Jalaluddin Haqqani, a Taliban military commander and a minister of the Taliban regime.
Meanwhile, Zardari is said to have been accused by the USA of “a lackluster attitude in combating al-Qaeda to disband terrorist networks in Pakistan and to degrade any capacity they might have to plan and launch international terrorist attacks,” which, coupled with Zardari’s scarce enthusiasm in “boosting Islamabad’s counterinsurgency capacity” and his dangerous closeness to China, make his future uncertain, which in turn would not discard a coup sponsored by the CIA to attempt to balkanize Pakistan, weaken it as a State, and subject it to China. The CIA would likely resort to the endemic contentiousness in Kashmir which will be a new local episode between Pakistan allied to China and India backed by Russia, aggravated by the fact that both countries have nuclear ballistic missiles.
The explosive cocktail in Kashmir
Kashmir would be the perfect paradigm of implementing the Brzezinskian theory of “constructive chaos” in the region, a concept based on the maxim attributed to Julius Caesar divide et impera to establish a field of instability and violence (Balkanization) and spark off a state of chaos extending from Lebanon, Palestine and Syria to Iraq, and from Iran and Afghanistan to Pakistan, Kashmir and Anatolia (Asia Minor), and according to Fundació Solidaritat UB, Kashmir will have become “an explosive cocktail from bringing together such unstable ingredients as Hindu-Muslim religious contentiousness, the territorial contentiousness of Kashmir separatists, traditionally oppressed by an Indian army deploying around 300,000 troops in Kashmir (1 soldier per 100 inhabitants) and supported by former Sudanese, Pakistani and Afghan jihadists, led by the Islamist State.”
Kashmir has purported an endemic confrontation between Pakistan and India which have claimed it as their own ever since the independence of both States in 1947, (the British preferred to integrate Kashmir with India because India offered greater guarantees than Pakistan to safeguard the northern frontiers from possible Soviet or Chinese attacks), as the region is a strategic point for controlling rivers and border passes as well as being a symbol for the construction of each State’s national identities. On the other hand, a confrontation broke out in 1962 between India and China resulting from the Chinese disagreement with the boundary established in 1914 (the McMahon Line), after which China gained control of the Aksai Chin plateau in addition to the Siachen Glaciar (territories India continues to claim), whereby India has been holding an arms race with its neighbor and rival Pakistan, aimed unequivocally at preparing a new armed confrontation.
India thus has cutting-edge Agni V nuclear missiles which can carry a nuclear warhead 5,000 km while Pakistan has the Hatf IV ballistic missile, developed with Chinese assistance and capable of transporting a nuclear warhead and reaching 900 km. With all this, the event of a new armed confrontation would have us facing the first Russian-Chinese military pulse in the form of a nuclear collision restricted to the Indian-Pakistani geographical area. This does not rule out a possible extension of the “constructive chaos” into Chinese territory, as the USA’s eventual aim is a confrontation with the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), (founded in 2001 by the Shanghai Five (China, Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan) plus Uzbekistan) and converted along with the ALBA countries and Iran into a hard nucleus resisting USA and UK world hegemony, with Xinjiang as the scenario of its destabilizing operations.
Eastern Turkestan or Xinjiang (“New Boundary”) was incorporated into the Chinese empire in the 18 century and represents 17% of the country’s land surface (and 2% of its population), and Xinjiang’s Uigur ethnicity (of Turkish-Mongolian origin, with a total of 8.5 million inhabitants) maintains ethnic and Islamic characteristics which place it very close to its relatives in central Asia and Turkey. This makes it an ideal hotbed to implement the Brzezinskian strategy of “civilization clash”, which consists of Balkanizing China and its confrontation with Islam (around 1,500 million followers) and drying up the oilfields of the Central Asian Islamic countries as several of China’s most important oil pipelines go through Xinjiang on their way from Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Russia. This explains the province’s strategic importance within the Brzezinskian strategy of getting China to become fully dependent on Russian energy in order to end up confronting them in a later stage and eventually subjecting them and imposing a new world order under the Anglo-Jewish-American aegis.
Gorráiz Germán López is a political analyst writing on economic and geopolitical issues. His articles appear in a number of publications in Europa and the United States.