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Scenario planning Brexit Referendum – Do not put eggs in one basket

By Bina ul Haq

  • Brexit referendum will impact sooner or later, since the European economies are massively underperforming and UK is chained to them.
  • This referendum is “advisory”, not “binding”.
  • In case of Brexit scenario the strategy should be UK to diversify its international links.
  • World is an Oyster, UK may strengthen the relationships with Russia, USA, BRICS and alliances with colonial ruled countries.
  • European Union and frameworks couldn’t save financial sector disaster in the past. A new approach must be adopted by liaising with other countries globally.

The scenario is world is thinking Brexit will be the end of the world and trade for the UK market.  Some experts focus and urge to remain in the EU. In recent situation application of out of the box thinking will play a vital role. What we are missing here is the history of European Union why and how was it created. In essence England joined the EU in 1973 only. This referendum is “advisory”, not “binding”, meaning in constitutional terms; the Government can choose how to respond. An exit would mean invoking Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty. It will give two years to the departing country with regards to the agreement terms and negotiating exit deal, which has to go through the European Union constitutional process and then the membership lapses.

In case of Brexit scenario the strategy should be UK to diversify its international links. Such as strengthening the relationship with Russia, which will favour in terms of gas supply and building relationship with the Arab world through President Putin. America can be instrumental in defence partnership and deepen the ties. Alliances with colonial ruled countries will always be a beneficial resort for trade and progressing with the growing economies, BRICS is already in place for new ventures. Britain can flourish by incentivising investment through low corporation tax and other benefits. Foreign investors have already invested in the UK properties and the trend reflects they will not be stopping further investments. There will be a good source of income from foreign students’ tuition fees as well. Britain can control immigration if it leaves the European Union, because freedom of movement gives other EU citizens an automatic right to live in the UK. Hence, European immigration control will generate huge savings in terms of government social benefits and NHS medical budget. Locals will get the job opportunities and funds for further skills and trainings.  European Union and frameworks couldn’t save financial sector disaster in the past, so new approach must be adopted by liaising with other countries globally. There will be no pressure to bail out European country’s debts and London will remain as a main financial hub in Europe.

The currency market fluctuates with every little sneeze; pound will gradually go up just like after England refused to adopt the Euro as the medium of common currency. Luxury goods trade has always been there, this will not stop rich to buy extravagances. The companies will not stop trading with the UK and incur loss in sales, since the UK is a massive importer. In April 2016 the value of exports (EU and Non-EU) increased to £25.0 billion, and imports (EU and Non-EU) increased to £41.0 billion, compared with last month. Consequently the UK is a net importer this month, with imports exceeding exports by £16.0 billion.

The UK would save enough on EU membership fees and will be able to compensate its exporters. European economies are massively underperforming and UK is chained to them.

The world will be an Oyster for the UK; there are ample of opportunities waiting in case of Brexit, especially in terms of trade. Based on the arguments any impact will be on a temporary basis.

Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we’ve been waiting for. We are the change that we seek. Barack Obama

Reference:

https://www.uktradeinfo.com/Statistics/OverseasTradeStatistics/Pages/OTS.aspx

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Bina ul Haq

Bina ul Haq, MBA, is a London-based banker with extensive international financial experience. She has expertise in Business Management, Portfolio Management, Risk and Controls. Bina is continuing her studies in a Strategic Program in Global Business from the University of Oxford - Said Business School.

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