By Babar Khan Bozdar
The region of South Asia is confused with regards to Indo-Pak hostility. However both nation shares linguistic, cultural geographic and economic links but their relationships have been plagued by hostility and suspicion.
When Pakistan tested its nuclear missile in 1998, an approach to the balance of power occurred in south Asia because India had already tested its nuclear missile in 1974, it was the compulsion of Pakistan and a matter of survival. Therefore the balance of power was crucial for the region.
Stability-Instability Paradox was framed to understand the relationship between the conventional and nuclear level of war. Mostly it changes the nature of direct confrontation into the proxy war as we have seen during the cold war, there was huge tension between NATO and Warsaw Pact states and their allies but neither it starts major conflict nor allows minor conflict to escalate and the same situation is here in south Asia since the nuclear explosions of Pakistan.
After a limited war of Kargil, minor conflicts triggered between India and Pakistan. As a result, both countries came to the brink of war on different occasion. Mumbai attack was one of them and it triggered the conflict but later on it was controlled because there was the probability of nuclear exchange, therefore both states were much aware of Mutual Assured Destruction. The situation becomes worst when Indian politicians alleged Pakistan as the perpetrator and proclaimed for surgical strikes at Mureedke Headquarter of Jamat-Ud-Dawa but later on it shows flexibility when Pakistan offered an assurance of full co-operation.
“Stability-Instability Paradox states that when adversaries have nuclear weapons, the probability of direct war between them greatly decreases but the probability of minor and indirect conflict will increase. This is because rational actors want to avoid war and thus they neither start major conflict nor allow minor conflict to escalate into major conflict.”
Stability-Instability paradox exists in south Asia because of following reasons. First, it triggered the minor conflicts such as Mumbai attack which brought both countries near the brink of war and there was a chance of nuclear exchange because it was a massive attack in its nature. Secondly, minor conflicts were not allowed to cross the threshold as in the case of Mumbai attack. The number of skirmishes happened in 2015 is as under.
On second January 2015, a thirteen year Girl was killed by Indian BSF firing in Pakistani residential areas Zafar Wal.
On 14 February 2015, a sixteen year Girl was killed in Indian firing near Rawalakot.
On 11 April 2015, A Pakistani drone was claimed by Indian BSF to be spying on Indian Territory along the international border.
On July 15, 2015, A BSF Soldier was killed in firing cross-border firing by Pakistani rangers.
On 15 August two Pakistan civilian were killed in cross-border firing along Kotli.
On 7th September 2015, An Indian civilian was killed by Punjab ranger’s fire along LOC in Poonch Sector.
On 26th October 2015, two Pakistani civilians were lost their lives in BSF firing along Shakargarh Sector.
On 2nd November, two Indian soldiers were killed in Gurez Sector according to Indian Sources.
Above facts clearly, express that Stability-Instability Paradox exists in South Asia because there is a continuous rise in such minor incidents. Two other lethal incidents Pathan Kot and URI attack were also happened, which again created tension among the masses and the situation was alarming because Indian officials claimed that ISI is their handler. They were trying to malign ISI but the fact was that these were nonstate actors and they were trying to create hostility between India and Pakistan, while the third party was earning its benefit. Pakistan condemned the attack and assured full co-operation and offered join investigation in this regard but Indian government rejected its offer. Later on National investigation agency investigative the attack and no such involvement of Pakistan were found.
The Jingoistic Indian approach
Since Modi becomes the prime minister of India, there is a Vertical increase in such incidents due to immature policies of BJP led Government. Indian army is brutally killing the Kashmiri’s and on another side cross-border firing and violation of LOC is mean to change the narrative of Pakistan regarding Kashmir. It is obvious that India is creating minor conflicts and labeled it to Pakistan that is unjust and unfair.
There is a perception projected by Indian media that Pakistan is exporting terrorism in India, but the fact is that they are freedom fighters who fought for their rights of Self-Determination but Indian army is suppressing their voice. Indian public is totally unaware of Indian foreign policy and Indian army’s propaganda against Pakistan. Indian media plays a double role in this regard. No doubt Indian public is interested in politics and plays an active role but they don’t know anything about Modi’s covert policies. Google lists Modi among the “world’s most stupid prime minister and under the list of top ten criminals”. Modi’s policies may lay down India and time will prove it. The Jingoistic attitude of Indian premier is haunting the peace process between India and Pakistan. It is time to reset the policies and make speedy the peace process.
Babar Khan Bozdar is a Research Affiliate at Strategic Vision Institute in Islamabad. He can be reached at firstname.lastname@example.org, email@example.com