ASIAOPINION

Outcome of world’s largest election – Indian general election 2019

Without a shadow of a doubt, things are not looking good for the incumbent party after 6 rounds of voting in the 2019 Indian General Election, which commenced on the 11th of April, 2019. The 19th of May, 2019 will be the last; 7th phase after 38 days of the Election Campaign. The remaining 59 constituencies will be contested, mostly in the Eastern and North-Central part of the nation, and on the 23rd of May, the final result will be announced.The entire election process takes place over 7 stages due to the vast size and population of the nation. The numbers are staggering; 900 million eligible voters out of a population of 1300 million (1.3 billion); voting to place 542 members of parliament in the Lower House or Lokh Sabha which translates in English to the Peoples’ House.

The world’s largest and most complex election process, as well as being the most expensive. It has been, by all independent accounts and observation, conducted fairly and also been free of irregularities and misconduct; on both, the part of the state authority and the voting public. A massive exercise, in fact, the world’s largest peoples’ enfranchisement. However, all good things come with a price. The estimated cost of conducting the 2019 election has been stated as being approximately equivalent to 7000 million US Dollars, (7 Billion), or two-thirds of the Indian Republic’s 2019 healthcare budget, which is just about 11 Billion US Dollars.

The Indian Parliamentary structure is modelled along the lines of the UK Parliament; however, with the small additional difference being that the Indian Republic has a clearly codified Constitution whereas the United Kingdom remains resolutely the ONLY country in the world without a Written Constitution of any kind.

The poll predictions are for the Congress led Coalition — (the United Progressive Alliance or UPA) to occupy 139 seats, the BJP to take 220 and BJP Allies to return 44 Members; (a total of 264 under the BJP Coalition called the National Democratic Alliance, or NDA); with all other parties to then come in together with 138. It is shy of the overall majority that the incumbent would need to form a working Government, which means that they would have to seek out smaller parties outside of the NDA to get them over the line. As in the case of the Democratic Unionist Party with their 9 MPs; who wield a disproportionate amount of influence over the Conservatives in the UK Parliament, so will these smaller parties who at most would contribute 20 MPs. (Which is just about the bare minimum needed to stumble over the line to reach the required number of 272). Any dissatisfaction expressed by these smaller parties and the government would collapse and Parliament would cease to function until a compromise arrangement is worked out or another election is conducted. Smaller parties know that they have the power to bring down a weak coalition and they will demand a huge ransom for their allegiance; as in some of the most influential posts within the Cabinet for their respective MPs.

The BJP is fully aware of the impossibility of an outright majority and realise that they will have to work within a weak coalition Government that will need the support of outside political parties “punching well above their weight”. These poll numbers are optimistic at best for the BJP, (they could get even less than 220). PM Modi and the President of the BJP, Amit Shah, have no one else to blame but themselves for this situation, as they had 5 years to fulfil extravagant promises made in 2014 but instead have engaged themselves in bombastic gestures and very little substance.In a vast and diverse nation such as the Indian Republic, a one-party majority overriding authority in power is the worst thing that could happen, as everything in Indian Society is by mutual consent, endless negotiations and the incorporation of the demands of all parties involved. Indian Society moves along on constant adjustments, concessions, agreements between people and institutions; where compromises are constantly sought that lead to mutually agreeable outcomes. Telling people exactly what to do elicits the exact opposite result in that they will find ways to circumvent authority, bend or even break, rules.

India works best where checks and balances are kept on all negotiations and proceedings, preventing any particular entity from gaining sole advantage.However, what is good for the Indian Republic and her people creates a problem for those who seek to benefit from the re-colonisation of India; the Foreign Investor, the MultiNational dealmaker, the Capital Hedge Funds whose aim is to reap maximum profit for minimal cost. Within a weak coalition, these entities would have to negotiate with multiple parties, whereas in a “One Stop Shop”, one agreement signed and sealed is sufficient to move forward. Herein lies the heart of the matter. The Indian Republic is the Final Frontier of the Ex-Colonial British Empire, who now incorporate themselves in the City of London, Wall Street and Frankfurt and they don’t want to waste energy and resources with time consuming, complex negotiations to get a deal done; (and it looks as clear as the day is long) that the BJP will definitely NOT have an overwhelming majority in the Lokh Sabha.

Authoritarian Governments with an overwhelming parliamentary majority, however, don’t have the problem of having to explain their actions; they have the authority to lay down the law and the authority to then enforce that law; yet it seems that the Indian voter has rejected both the incumbent and the Congress and has gravitated towards regional parties; which will create a deeply fragmented coalition government when the final tally is declared. 

Time is compressing, events which took years to play out are now being executed in weeks. At a time critical for the outcome of the largest election in the world, which is also the most important election for European and US corporatism this century; (as the vast resources and labour capital of India remain the final frontier to re-exploit) now is the best opportunity for them to re-colonize India under a compliant BJP led Government.The survival of the City of London, Wall Street and Frankfurt; depends exclusively on the outcome of the 2019 Indian General Election. A result that will be “swayed in the right direction” at any cost, towards the current incumbent.So, if the general mood amongst the voters within the Indian Republic seems to be towards a coalition government, then how could the BJP gain superiority. What is to be done? How can the results be made to sway more favourably towards the incumbent, especially those 20+ seats that the NDA desperately need in order to avoid the humiliation of horse-trading with upstart, inconsequential parties. The question is not whether or not the BJP will win the 2019 General Election. The question is by how much? (That eternal quest that the Diasporic Indian conducts his existence around, “How Much”). How could the power brokers, the KingMakers in the City of London/Wall Street help out the man with the 56″ chest get over the line convincingly. The answer lies in the key held by the President of the Indian Republic, who was hand-picked and anointed by the Prime Minister himself.

If the situation turns into a chaotic mess where neither the NDA or the UPA can form a working Government, then the President has the authority to designate an Alliance Party that he feels has a chance to run a cohesive Government, regardless of the number of seats held by them. This would require an authorisation by the Judges of the Supreme Court of the Indian Republic, who coincidentally are nearly all BJP nominees who look upon the incumbent with awe and deep servility. The Election Commission of India (which also leans towards the incumbent) would then be asked to validate the results. All the important elections have finished, Netanyahu just about crawled over the line, Erdogan got a surprise in the Turkish Mayoral Elections, an Australian Election in the middle of collapsing house prices has been won by the incumbent, who himself claimed it was a “miracle” and now, all that remains is the outcome of the Indian Election; which is balanced on a knife edge. 

Corporations are now in a crisis for their own survival and a favourable outcome in the 2019 Indian Republic Elections is the only way forward for them to be able to save themselves from a broad and deep social upheaval that could undermine their global influence in the midst of an impending Global Recession.

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Supratim Barman

Supratim Barman, a native of Kolkata, India, holds an MSc from Queen Mary, University of London.

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