ASIAMIDDLE EASTOPINIONPOLITICS

The Iran & P5+1 nuclear diplomacy

By Nasurullah Brohi

The historic nuclear deal between Iran and six world powers (P5+1) is seen as one of the important diplomatic landmarks of the century bringing many hopes to surface the ground for cooperation and progress in the Middle Eastern region in particular and in the rest of the world  in general. This accord fundamentally aims to avert Tehran’s alleged nuclear weapons program and to stop developing a nuclear bomb in return of easing economic sanctions.

The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between  Iran and P5+1 (the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council—China, France, Russia, United Kingdom, United States—plus Germany) and the European Union signed in Vienna on 14 July 2015 abides Iran for next 15 years to lowering down its production of the stocks of enriched uranium at minimum levels, by that way it would not be possible for Iran to get sufficient materials for running centrifuges that are required for making nuclear weapons. Under this agreement, Iran will also purge its stockpiles of medium level enriched uranium under its possession and will further incise by 98% of its low levels of enriched uranium stockpiles and will also stop further production of fissile material required for a nuclear weapon. Moreover, for next 15 years it will also not enrich uranium over 3.67% through the reduced number (one-third) of first generation centrifuges.

The stern framework of inspection on the basis of ‘whenever and wherever’ of the nuclear sites allows inspectors to keep strict watch on Iran’s nuclear sites and to prevent any possibility of clandestine nuclear weapons program. According to this deal, the restrictions on uranium enrichment and other nuclear related activities will be obligatory on Iran for over next 15 to 25 years and in return, it could get economic benefits and trade with other world specially by exporting its major oil and natural gas resources. The European firms are also very keen and contesting each other in getting  business opportunities with Iran because of the nuclear deal that would hugely benefit the Iranian economy and build consumer confidence and enhance the industrial production to the increased capacity along with the immense oil and gas productions that are expected to surpass 4.7million barrels and 1,000million cubic meters respectively per day in the near future.

The deal only could become possible due to the strategic foresight and the stiff efforts of the both sides specially by the flexible attitude of the forces of political moderation inside Iran, though after getting elected, the Iranian President Hassan Rouhani had promised about ending his country’s international isolation. The US President Barack Obama has also termed the agreement as a step ahead towards a safer, more helpful and more hopeful world. The scheme of deciphering the nuclear crisis would unbolt a new era of development and progress through compliance with the conditions of the deal however, still much is to awaited as the U.S Congress has a period of two months for analyzing and finally approving the Iran nuclear deal until then the sanctions will prevail.

For many analysts, the deal is a geopolitical earthquake due to the fact that after three decades Iran and the US have reached a resolution to one of the most difficult international issues. If the deal ran successfully, it will bring an end to the ambitions of nuclear arms in one of the world’s most unstable regions. This greatest diplomatic achievement will possibly silhouette a new era of mutual cooperation, partnership, economic development and will ultimately bring more peace and progress in the region. This deal has also brought many hopes about the North Korea and many other nations who are ambitious about nuclear weapons programs. Though North Korea’s nuclear program is in more advanced mode than Iran’s but the consequences of the Iran and P5+1 nuclear agreement will at least attract North Korea to seek options and stop the pursuance of a very dangerous path and come out of the international isolation and get benefits by lifting of the international economic sanctions.

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Nasurullah Brohi

Nasurullah Brohi works as a Research Fellow at the Strategic Vision Institute in Islamabad and can be reached at nasurullahsvi@outlook.com

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