Spain: Sánchez’s black swans

The inauguration of Pedro Sánchez as President of the Government and the subsequent formation of a Coalition Government “a la Navarra” between PSOE and United Podemos would have unleashed the alarms in the establishment, which would have started a media crusade led by Felipe González, who became in front of the establishment to delegitimize the “unnatural union” of PSOE and Podemos. The establishment of the Spanish State would be made up of the financial-business, political, military, Catholic hierarchy, university and mass media sub-elites of the Spanish State, natural heirs to the legacy of General Franco who would have engulfed all spheres of decision (according to what can be inferred from the reading of the book “Financial oligarchy and political power in Spain” written by the ex-banker Manuel Puerto Ducet), elites that would gravitate in the geopolitical orbit of the United States and that would be collaborating in the strategy of harassment and demolition of the Sánchez Government with the objective He confessed to calling early elections in 2022 to facilitate a subsequent coalition government made up of PP and Vox.

The first phase of this operation consisted of the media offensive to make the central government the only culprit for “the terrible management in the face of the health crisis” which was followed by the refusal of the PP and Vox to implement new extensions of the State of Alarm for being ” a constitutional dictatorship that restricts individual freedoms ”, an attempt that failed due to the change in attitude of Ciudadanos in supporting the Sánchez government in the last two extensions. The third phase of the “Harassment and Demolition” operation tried to take advantage of the discomfort of broad sectors of the citizenry due to the duration of the confinement as well as the ruin of the self-employed and small businessmen to start “a Patriotic or Rojigualda Revolution” that through “caceroladas and escraches ”He challenged the Government by failing to abide by the restrictions included in the State of Alarm.

The fourth destabilizing phase consisted of the “judicialization of politics or lawfare” using judicial Tardofranquismo, an anachronism that would have the National Court and the Supreme Court as executing arms, judges Lamela and Llarena as its most prominent pawns and Judge Marchena as High Priest of some courts that would be controlled by the so-called “clan of politicians” in the words of the ex-President of the TS Chamber, Ramón Trillo, standing out the President of the Criminal Chamber of the National Court, Concepción Espejel, decorated in its day by the President of the PP of Castilla la Mancha, María Dolores de Cospedal). As a paradigm of such a judicial offensive, there would be the legal caper of Judge García Castellón, who would belong to the so-called “clan of politicians related to the PP” with the unequivocal objective of declaring Pablo Iglesias as “investigated in the so-called“ Dina Case ”and forcing his resignation as Vice President of the Government as well as the subsequent opening of the summary by Judge Escalonilla against the leadership of Podemos after a complaint filed by the ex-lawyer of Podemos, Jose´Manuel Calvente for “alleged irregular financing”, judicial processes of little distance and that ended up fading into oblivion.

Once the previous phases have failed, we are witnessing the fifth destabilizing phase, known as “Ave Fénix”, a virtual attempt with the specific objective of reissuing the Tejerazo syndrome and instrumentalized in the letters addressed to the Monarch and signed by ex-Army commanders in which They showed their “support and loyalty in these difficult moments for the Homeland” while blaming the social-communist Executive for “threatening the decomposition of national unity”, the umpteenth attempt that was once again diluted in the disjointed puzzle of chaos dominant. We are currently witnessing the sixth destabilizing phase known as “Operation Save Spain” and which will be reflected in the suffocating media campaign coupled with a massive mobilization in the streets and the presentation of papers in municipalities to try to paralyze the granting of pardons to leaders independentistas imprisoned as a result of the summary of 1-O as well as provoking the internal division between the barons of the PSOE, a vain attempt that will again be enveloped by the shadows of oblivion.

Sánchez’s black swans

The term “black swan” designates an unexpected and unpredictable event that produces consequences on a large scale and is only explicable afterwards. The Black Swan theory was developed by Nicholas Taleb in his book “The Black Swan”, in which he attempts to explain “the psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the strange event in historical matters ”. Pedro Sánchez would be threatened by the rupture of the dialogue bridges with the Catalan Government as well as by the possible departure of United We Can from the current Government, black swans that could lead to early elections in 2022 with an uncertain outcome and that could lead to its decline political.

Thus, the recent elections held in Catalonia would have staged the impossibility of reissuing the Tripartite in Catalonia (PSC, ERC and En Comú) after the triumph of a pro-independence majority that could dust off the pulse with the central State with the declaration of the DUI. Thus, the new Government chaired by Pere Aragonés would be reaffirmed in a solid consciousness of belonging to the Catalan Nation, willing to break the rules and laws imposed by the Spanish State and will not give up its efforts to achieve the Catalan Republic, a task that is utopian craving in the current European Union.Consequently, despite the granting of a pardon by the central government, the mediate strategy of the new government remotely controlled by Junqueras and Puigdemont will be to deprive the government of Pedro Sánchez of their parliamentary support in Congress to force the calling of state elections in 2022 with the hope of a victory for the right in the state as a whole that will allow it to break all the bridges of dialogue with the central government.

Thus, given the legal impossibility of holding a Referendum on Self-Determination of Catalonia, it will reissue the pulse with the central State with the declaration of the DUI (Unilateral Declaration of Independence) and will wait for the subsequent implementation by the Central Government of 155 that would make it appear in the eyes of the world as a victim of the totalitarian Spanish state. Likewise, if the failure of the repeal of the Labor Reform championed by the current Minister of Labor, Yolanda Díaz, is verified, the growing disaffection of United We Can with the Sánchez Government would be exacerbated and could translate into the departure of United We Can from the Executive and the subsequent formation of a single-color government of the PSOE, leaving Pedro Sánchez orphan in the intermission of the parliamentary support of the Basque and Catalan peripheral groups. Consequently, after a brief crossing of the desert, the call by Sánchez for early elections in 2022 with the avowed objective of engulfing the votes of United We Can and achieving a comfortable victory by taking advantage of the post-pandemic synergies symbolized in the resurrection seems unavoidable. of the tourism sector in addition to the arrival of the promised European Union Funds.

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Germán Gorráiz López

Germán Gorráiz López is a political analyst writing on economic and geopolitical issues. His articles appear in a number of publications in Europe and the United States.

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