The nuclear escalation that had its turning point in the Cuban Missile Crisis culminated in the signing by Kennedy and Khrushchev of the Nuclear Test Suspension Agreement (1962) and the implementation of the Doctrine of Peaceful Coexistence. However, the palindromy of History could make two presidents of the 21st century (Putin and Biden) remain twinned with Kennedy and Khrushchev due to the return to already forgotten scenarios of the Cold War that would include the reactivation of the arms race and the return to the Doctrine of Containment (Truman Doctrine), having again the Missile Crisis as a palindromic eye.
NATO and the return to the Truman Doctrine
The bases of this Doctrine were exposed by George F. Kennan in his essay “The sources of Soviet behavior” published in the journal Foreign Affairs in 1947 and whose main ideas are summarized in the quote “Soviet power is impervious to the logic of reason but very sensitive to the logic of force”. Thus, after the NATO Summit held in Wales in 2014, it was agreed to continue the Action Preparation Plan (RAP) in response to the Russian attitude in the Ukrainian crisis and that will result in the deployment of “ rapid intervention units” (Speardhead Force) in Poland, the Baltic States, Romania and Bulgaria, as well as the assumption by the member countries of the new “Smart Defense” doctrine. Said operational concept implies the partial transfer of the sovereignty of the member countries to the defense coordination with NATO as well as the increase in the spending items of the European countries that would be a meager 2% of the national GDP, leaving until now the bulk of the financing in the hands of the US (75% of nearly $1 billion of the total budget).
The total contingent of NATO troops in Europe would amount to some 70,000 members who, after the Ukraine crisis, could be increased to 100,000, which would mean in practice the violation of the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997 by which NATO ruled out “the permanent stationing of a substantial and additional contingent of combat troops in Eastern Europe.” On the other hand, it is foreseeable that the US will use Poland’s requests as an excuse to complete the fifth phase of the deployment of the anti-missile shield in Europe (EuroDAM), which would have as a reply on the Russian side the installation in Kaliningrad of the new inter-continental ballistic missile. of 100 Tm, (“the killer of the US anti-missile shield” in the words of former Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin) as well as the reactivation of the arms race between the two great powers.
End of the embargo against the Island or New Missile Crisis?
The cosmetic measures taken by the Obama Administration in its First Presidential Term following in the footsteps of the Clinton Administration (relaxation of communications and the increase in the sending of remittances to the island as well as the beginning of a round of talks on immigration issues), they left the blockade intact and did not substantially change Washington’s policy, although they reflected the consensus of broad sectors of the North American people in favor of a change in policy towards the Island sponsored by the Cuban regime’s decision to end state paternalism and allow free initiative and self-employment.
Donald Trump adopted as the leitmotiv of his Presidency to eliminate all traces of the Obama legacy. Thus, the confessed objective of the Trump Administration was for the Island to be doomed to suffocate with unpredictable results after the collapse of tourism caused by the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic on the Island and in the paroxysm of lack of solidarity, the Trump Administration blocked the purchases and deliveries of masks, pulmonary ventilators and other basic health supplies for the treatment of patients with Covid-19, since the ultimate objective of the Trump Administration would be to achieve a total shortage of oil, food and vital health supplies to shake the current status quo of the Island and as a farewell joke, Trump once again included Cuba on the list of “State Sponsors of Terrorism.”
For his part, Joe Biden, in an interview granted to the CBS network, assured that “in the event of winning the elections, he would resume the policy carried out by Barack Obama towards Cuba”, but the automatic renewal by the US for one more year of the The commercial embargo on the island would attack the current international financial and political system and could mean for Cuba losses estimated at nearly 70,000 million dollars, leading the Cuban regime to economic suffocation, the settlement of a blockade that runs the risk of becoming endemic and that can become lethal after the outbreak of the coronavirus pandemic.
For its part, Moscow is currently the ninth trade partner of Havana with exchanges valued at 224 million dollars in 2011 and as a prologue to its visit, the Russian Duma would have ratified the cancellation of Cuba’s debt with the USSR estimated at 35,200 million $ and the rest ($3.52 billion) will be paid by Cuba over ten years and reinvested by Russia in the Cuban economy and in the event that the Biden Administration maintains the anachronistic embargo on the Island intact, the affective detachment of the Cuban regime will emerge with respect to This vacuum could be used by Putin to sign a new Russian-Cuban military collaboration treaty (recalling the Secret Pact signed in 1960 in Moscow between Raúl Castro and Khrushchev), which would include the installation of a Radar base in the abandoned Lourdes military base to comfortably listen to the whispers of Washington and the installation of bases equipped with Iskander missiles, being able to relive the Kenned Missile Crisis y-Khrushchev (October 1962) and the subsequent signing with Khrushchev of the Nuclear Test Suspension Agreement (1962).