The new cartography of Ukraine

The former Soviet republic of Ukraine would have a population close to 50 million inhabitants and would be marked by the stigma of the chronic confrontation between Russian philosophizing and phobic tendencies. The exacerbation of the latent tensions between the pro-Russian ruling party and the pro-Western opposition were unleashed after the decision of the Ukrainian government to “interrupt preparations” for the signing of an association and free trade agreement with the EU, an agreement that was scheduled to be signed at the Vilnius Summit and which provided for the integration of Ukraine, Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine according to the agreements of the Prague summit of 2009.

The new cartography of Ukraine

The Sea of Azov is crucial for grain and steel exports produced in eastern Ukraine as it is linked to the Black Sea by the Kerch Strait and from there ships can sail to any part of the world and Putin’s ultimate goal According to Ukrainian sources, it would be “achieving the economic suffocation of the Ukrainian ports bathed by the Sea of Azov and ending up expelling Ukraine from its own territories”, with which absolute control of the Sea of Azov would pass into Russian hands.

The Crimean crisis would have meant the return of the Brezhnev Doctrine (also called the doctrine of limited sovereignty), which established that “Russia has the right to intervene even militarily in the internal affairs of the countries in its area of influence”, establishing a network of orbital rings that will gravitate over the Russian aegis, governed by autocrats who only blindly obey the dictates of their master Putin and among which the Chechen leader, Ramzán Kadyrov, the Belarusian, Lukashenko and the Kazakh leader Tokayev would stand out.

Thus, skilfully combining aid to oppressed Russian ethnic minorities (Donbass, Crimea, Ossetia, Abkhazia), energy blackmail (Ukraine and Moldova), the dissuasive nuclear threat to NATO, surgical military intervention (Ukraine, Chechnya and Kazakhstan), the destabilization of “unwelcome” neighboring governments (Georgia) and the drowning of the internal political opposition will try to place most of the countries broken off from the former USSR under its orbit and create the New Great Russia on the horizon of 2025, the result of the atavism of Peter the Great.

To do this, Russia began a lightning operation to occupy the country and achieve, in a subsequent negotiation, total control of Donbass, Crimea and the Ukrainian arch of the Sea of Azov that extends from Mariupol to Odessa, not ruling out the reissue of the war of Russian-Ukrainian Gas in 2006 with the unequivocal objective of breaking the unity of the EU countries, in the certainty that both Germany and France will not hesitate to sacrifice Ukraine for the sake of ensuring their energy supply.

Thus, the rise in gas and electricity prices would have surprised Europe with gas reserves at historic lows (60%) and would have staged the resounding failure of the energy policies of a European Union incapable of achieving utopian energy self-sufficiency and a The new Gas War would have major side effects of supply cuts in several EU countries (Russian gas supplies more than 70% of countries such as the Baltic States, Finland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, Greece, Austria, Hungary and the Republic of Czech and more than 80% of the total gas that the EU imports from Russia passes through Ukraine.

Likewise, the total paralysis of the Nord Stream 2 project that connects Russia with Germany through the Baltic Sea with a maximum transport capacity of 55,000 million cubic meters (bcm) of gas per year and with a validity of 50 years, a vital route for Germany and the Nordic countries will force the EU into US fracking dependency. Thus, the US will take advantage of the Ukrainian crisis to replace European energy dependence on Russia (40% of the gas imported by the EU comes from Russia) with fracking dependence, flooding the European market with LNG (natural gas fracked in the US and transported by gas tankers) , with which the US would achieve the objective it was pursuing after the Ukrainian crisis but will not be able to avoid the twinning of Russia and China that could lead to a subsequent conflict on a world scale.

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Germán Gorráiz López

Germán Gorráiz López is a political analyst writing on economic and geopolitical issues. His articles appear in a number of publications in Europe and the United States.

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