EUROPEINTL CONFLICTSOPINION

Will Biden’s myopia cause a new missile crisis?

The father of the Argentine Constitution, Juan Bautista Alberdi in his book “The Crime of War” written in 1872 states that “wars will be rarer as the responsibility for their effects is felt by all those who promote them and they incite”, which anticipates by almost a century the end of the nuclear escalation that had its turning point in the Cuban Missile Crisis and that culminated in the signing by Kennedy and Khrushchev of the Nuclear Test Suspension Agreement ( 1962) and the implementation of the Doctrine of Peaceful Coexistence. However, after the Ukrainian conflict we will witness the return of the Cold War between Russia and the US (Cold War 2.0), the withdrawal of the US from the INF Treaty, the consequent reactivation of the nuclear race and a possible reissue of the Crisis of the Missiles that would have as epicenters Romania, Kaliningrad and Cuba.

NATO and the Doctrine of Containment

Joe Biden’s harsh statements about Russia (“Putin is a war criminal”) and the implementation of sanctions to achieve economic suffocation and financial starvation of Russia as a result of the Ukrainian conflict have staged the arrival of the Cold War 2.0 and the return of George Kennan’s geopolitical theses. Thus, NATO would have opted to increase the resources allocated to military development in addition to informing about its plans to collaborate in this area with countries such as Ukraine, the Baltic States, Georgia, Moldova and Poland after the Ukrainian crisis and would have increased its military presence in the This European by stationing four battalions in the Baltic States and Poland as well as 20 F-16 aircraft, with which the total contingent of its troops in Europe would exceed 75,000 members.

This in practice meant the violation of the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997 by which NATO ruled out “the permanent stationing of a substantial and additional contingent of combat troops in Eastern Europe” and the return to the Doctrine of Containment , whose bases were exposed by George F. Kennan in his essay “The sources of Soviet behavior” published in the journal Foreign Affairs in 1947 and whose main ideas are summarized in the quote “Soviet power is impervious to the logic of reason but very sensitive to the logic of force”, and in this context would include the planned integration of Sweden and Finland into the military structures of NATO, the fifth phase of the deployment of the anti-missile shield in Europe (Euro DAM) and the increase in forces military with 4 new battalions deployed on the European border with Russia.

Will Biden’s Myopia Cause a New Missile Crisis?

After the disagreements that arose between the US and Russia over the unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, Barack Obama would have parked the Anti-Ballistic Missile Shield (NDM) project, replacing it with “a new mobile anti-missile defense system ” with the intention of making Russia a necessary partner in safeguarding world peace and stability. Initially, Russia and NATO agreed to cooperate in the creation of the anti-missile shield for Europe in November 2010 at the Lisbon Bilateral Summit, since for Moscow it was vital that “NATO offered real guarantees that this system would not target Russia and have a legally binding document in this regard”.

However, the Obama Administration, (following the mimetic inertia of the Bush Administration of ignoring Russia), refused to offer such guarantees in writing and in September 2009 President Obama (pressured by the establishment or US shadow power), approved the implementation of the new European anti-missile defense system (European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA), which is actually a global anti-missile shield in which interceptor missiles located on mobile platforms can shoot down targets in space .

In fact, the fifth phase of the deployment of the anti-missile shield in Europe (Euro AMD) began in May 2016 when the Aegis Ashore anti-ballistic defense system entered service at the Deveselu base (Romania), just 600 km from the Crimean peninsula and following the dynamics of the Cold War (action-reaction), Russia installed Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad as well as S-400 anti-aircraft missiles, with which, in the words of political scientist Vladimir Abramov, “the province of Kaliningrad will once again play the role gun to the temple of Europe like two decades ago”. Likewise, Putin, in a message to the Federal Assembly, warned that “Russia could also use the Tsirkon hypersonic missile that, with a speed of Mach 8 and launched from submarines, could reach any US Command Center in five minutes as well as the Burevestnik cruise missile and the Poseidon nuclear submarine drone.”

Finally, and according to rt.com, Russia would be negotiating to install its military bases with Cuba, Venezuela, Nicaragua, Seychelles and Singapore with the unequivocal objective of expanding the Russian military radius, since according to analyst Lajos Szaszdi “the opening of bases abroad it is necessary for Russia’s strategic deterrence, intelligence, as well as to verify disarmament agreements and also to determine what plans there are on the part of the Pentagon in case of operations or interventions abroad. Thus, it would not be ruled out that after the Ukrainian dispute a new Russo-Cuban Military Collaboration Treaty be signed (recalling the Secret Pact signed in 1960 in Moscow between Raúl Castro and Khrushchev) that would include the installation of a Radar base in the abandoned Lourdes military base to comfortably listen to Washington’s whispers, being able to relive the Kennedy-Khrushchev Missile Crisis (October, 1962) and the subsequent signing with Khrushchev of the Nuclear Test Suspension Agreement (1962) after what would be implemented the G-2 or Primus Inter Pares USA-Russia.

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Germán Gorráiz López

Germán Gorráiz López is a political analyst writing on economic and geopolitical issues. His articles appear in a number of publications in Europe and the United States.

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