Split in NATO?

After the annexation of Crimea to Russia by referendum, we assisted the division “de facto” of Ukraine into two almost symmetrical halves and separated by the 32nd meridian East, leaving the South and East of the country (including Crimea) under Russian orbit while the Center and West of present-day Ukraine will sail in the wake of the EU, a division that will be endorsed in a new Geneva Agreement and will mean “de facto” the return to recurrent endemism of the Russia-US Cold War, the reactivation of the world arms race and the return to the Doctrine of Containment (Truman Doctrine) whose bases were exposed by George F. Kennan in his essay “The Sources of Soviet Behavior” published in Foreign Affairs magazine in 1947 and whose main ideas are summarized in the quote ” Soviet power is impervious to the logic of reason but very sensitive to the logic of force. ”

Will NATO be the new gendarme in Libya and the Maghreb?

The ex-president of Egypt, Hosni Mubarak, (overthrown for his refusal to install US bases on Egyptian soil), revealed in an interview to the Egyptian newspaper El-Fagr the existence of the alleged plan to divide the entire region of the Middle East , consisting of the establishment of the aforementioned “constructive chaos” through the successive destruction of the autocratic regimes of Iraq, Libya, Sudan, Syria and Iran and reserving for Jordan the role of “new homeland of the Palestinian people”, for which the United States It would serve as the Takfiri groups (a kind of hydra whose primary head would be Al Qaeda), by means of their terrorist actions, destroying the peaceful image of Islam and preventing the political enhancement of the Muslim world.

After the inanity of the Obama Administration, the Fourth Branch of the US Government (true shadow power that already controls the Trump Administration), again resorted to the hologram of the chemical weapons attack by the Syrian Army to carry out a media attack against the Syrian Al-Shairat air base, an attack that would actually be a warning to Russia, Syria and Iran that they should count on the United States in search of an international agreement that would be reflected in the Geneva II Conference on Syria (which will be postponed “Sine die” by the US until the military situation is balanced and it would be included in a scenario of global solution to the existing disputes in the Middle East (Syria, Palestine, Iraq and Iran) .The premises of the Trump Administration would be the defenestration of Al Asad and the subsequent partition of Syria into three parts, thus we will have Alawite Syria, a Russian protectorate that would cover from the Mediterranean coast to Aleppo, the Syrian Kurdistan under the tutelage of the United States. The USA and the Sunni area of southern Syria that would be included in the new Syrian-Iraqi Sunistan, which together with the division of Iraq would consecrate the triumph of Israel’s efforts for the balkanization of Syria and Iraq. Likewise, NATO will soon assume the role of gendarme in the Arab countries of the Mediterranean arc with the unequivocal objective of establishing a security ring that prevents the annual departure of about 150,000 people to Europe. especially from Libya, a failed state in which the so-called National Unity Government would be powerless to control the reigning anarchy with the Salafist Wahhabism established in Tripoli while Takfiri groups (al-Qaeda satellites) tribal dominate the interior.

NATO and the US withdrawal from the INF Treaty

NATO would have opted to increase the resources destined to military development in addition to reporting on its projects to collaborate in that area with countries such as Ukraine, the Baltic States, Georgia, Moldova and Poland after the Ukrainian crisis and would have increased its military presence in Eastern Europe by deploying four battalions in the Baltic States and Poland as well as 20 F-16 aircraft, bringing the total contingent of its troops in Europe to over 75,000 members. This in practice will mean the violation of the NATO-Russia Foundational Act of 1997 by which NATO ruled out “the permanent parking of a substantial and additional contingent of combat troops in Eastern Europe” and the return to the Doctrine of Containment , whose bases were exposed by George F. Kennan in his essay “The Sources of Soviet Behavior” published in Foreign Affairs magazine in 1947 and whose main ideas are summarized in the quote “Soviet power is impervious to the logic of reason but very sensitive to the logic of force ”.

Following disagreements between the US and Russia over the unilateral declaration of independence of Kosovo, Agfasia and South Ossetia, Barack Obama reportedly parked the Anti-Ballistic Missile Shield (NDM) project, replacing it with “a new mobile anti-missile defense system “with the intention of making Russia a necessary collaborator in safeguarding world peace and stability. However, in September 2009 President Obama (pressured by the US establishment or shadow power) approved the implementation of the new European anti-missile defense system, (European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA), which actually it is a global anti-missile shield in which interceptor missiles located on mobile platforms can strike targets in a space, if the US withdrawal from the signed Medium and Short Range Arms Reduction Treaty (INF) is consummated. by Reagan and Gorbachev, we would assist in the implementation of the fifth phase of the deployment of the anti-missile shield in Europe (Euro DAM) and following the dynamics of the Cold War (action-reaction), the subsequent one by Russia in Kaliningrad of the new inter-ballistic missile. continental 100 Tm, (“the killer of the US anti-missile shield” in the words of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Dmitri Rogozin), thus in the words of political scientist Vladimir Abramov “the province of Kaliningrad v it will forget to play the role of a pistol in the temple of Europe as it did two decades ago.

Split in NATO?

On the other hand, we attended some surprising statements by the British Foreign Minister, Philip Hammond, collected by the newspaper “The Telegrah” in which he affirmed that “London could host US nuclear missiles on British soil amid tensions with Russia”, which This could be understood as a return to an arms race such as that maintained during the Cold War with the USSR (reviving the Partnership project between the US and Europe to supply the United Kingdom with Polaris missiles from July 1962). Within this context, the information from the German television station ZDF should be placed on its night program ‘Frontal 21’ that “the United States plans to deploy 20 new B61-12 nuclear bombs, each one in a western German air base. of which has a power equivalent to 80 times that launched in Hiroshima “adding that” in 2010 the German Government voted not to allow nuclear weapons to be in its territory but the withdrawal did not take place and the bombs will be replaced by more modern ones ”
For his part, Thomas Hitschler of the Social Democratic Party (SPD) reported that in the coming years the German government plans to invest around 112 million euros in the development of the Büchel military base, and several German politicians have criticized the plans for the deployment of US weapons on German soil for considering them a provocation against Russia, while the Russian Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Maria Zajárova, has already expressed concern about the “flagrant violation of articles 1 and 2 of the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty”.

All this could be seen by France and Germany as a loss of their sovereignty and translate into a breakdown of current NATO. Thus, a new military structure will emerge that would be made up of the USA, Canada, Great Britain, the Baltic States, Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, Romania, Spain, Italy, Portugal, Malta, Cyprus and Greece with the unequivocal objective of to be a block of containment of “Putin’s expansionist ideals”. On the other hand, we will attend the strengthening of the Berlin-Paris Axis, led by France and Germany, which will be reflected in the European Defense Agency and which will have the countries of its original area of influence gravitating in its orbit of influence (Holland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Luxembourg, Sweden, Norway, Denmark and Austria), the result of the reaffirmation of French and German national sovereignties as a defensive strategy against the drift of the former “American partner”, (reviving the Elysee Treaty between De Gaulle and Adenauer (1963).

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Germán Gorráiz López

Germán Gorráiz López is a political analyst writing on economic and geopolitical issues. His articles appear in a number of publications in Europe and the United States.

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