France’s exit from NATO?

In the event of being reelected President in the presidential elections in spring 2022, Macron will try to catalyze the chauvinism of the French by restoring the atavism of la Grandeur, a doctrine that would combine the cult of the economic, political and military independence of France with the consolidation of the mission of the Nation and French culture in the world. Thus, Macron will assume the decision-making power in Defense and Foreign Affairs that will become “the reserved domain of the President” and will adopt an “activist” approach in international affairs, becoming personally involved and having “the commitment to humanitarian intervention and increasing the specific weight of France in World Geopolitics as backbones of its foreign policy “, with which domestic policy will be reduced to a mere instrument of foreign policy that serves as a catalyst for the values of La Grandeur. the military structures of NATO and the revitalization of the Francophonie as a political and economic entity on the world stage on the horizon of 2025.

US distancing

The strategic agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States known as AUKUS, involves the sale of North American nuclear-powered submarines to Australia at the same time as an economic fiasco for France estimated at 50,000 million Euros. Thus, the unilateral rupture by the Australian Government of a mega-contract with France for 12 conventional submarines, would have provoked the anger of the French Government and the call for consultations of its ambassadors in Washington and Canberra, which together with the possible stoppage of the sale of Rafaele fighter jets to India, could provoke the disaffection of France towards the “once American partner” and could translate into the departure of France from the structures of the Atlantic Alliance on the horizon of 2023.

On the other hand, we witness some surprising statements by the former British Foreign Minister, Philip Hammond collected by the newspaper “The Telegrah” in which he affirms that “London could host US nuclear missiles on British soil amid tensions with Russia”, what could be understood as the return to an arms race like the one maintained during the Cold War with the USSR (reviving the Partnership project between the USA and Europe to supply the United Kingdom with Polaris missiles of July 1962). Within this context, the information of the German television channel ZDF should be placed in its night program ‘Frontal 21’ that “The United States plans to deploy 20 new B61-12 nuclear bombs, each one of which it has a power equivalent to 80 times that launched in Hiroshima “adding that” in 2010 the German Government voted not to allow nuclear weapons in its territory but the withdrawal did not take place and the bombs will be replaced by more modern ones ”, Decisions that after the foreseeable formation in 2022 of a Coalition Government between the PSD, the Greens and Left groups could be put on hold and increase the Franco-German distancing from the US thesis.

France’s exit from NATO?

After “the stab in the back” that the signing of the AUKJUS agreement has meant for France, Macron will take advantage of the EU Presidency that starts in January 2022 to promote the initiative of the European Defense Agency, a defensive entity that will mean cutting off the umbilical cord with the US that NATO represented and that will be made up of the countries of the original area of influence of the Franco-German Axis (Holland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Luxembourg and Austria), the result of the reaffirmation of the French and German national sovereignties as a defensive strategy against the drift of the once “American partner”, (reviving the Elysee Treaty between De Gaulle and Adenauer (1963). This would imply the need for “European military and technological sovereignty” that would pivot on the “Force de Frappe “French nuclear, the European sixth generation fighter in which Airbus and Dassault participate and the newest third generation nuclear missile submarine SNLE 3G, thesis that will be seen á promoted at the NATO Summit to be held in Madrid in July 2022 and which could mark the beginning of the disappearance of a NATO that, in the words of Macron to the weekly The Economist “is brain dead.”

Macron’s disaffection towards the United States will lead to a political rapprochement with Russia (recalling De Gaulle’s trip to Moscow, 1966), a Doctrine that would be embodied in the Ratification of the Good Neighbor Policy with Putin’s Russia by signing the preferential agreements to ensure the supply of Russian gas and oil and increase commercial exchanges and the exit of France from NATO military structures, (emulating the dismantling of thirty American bases on French soil by De Gaulle (1966), having again as the backbone the “Force de Frappe.” Since De Gaulle, resistance to the US leadership has been a factor in the foreign policy of all French presidents, but the discrepancy will be only formal, as demonstrated by de Gaulle’s support for United States in the Cuban Missile Crisis (1962) and in its subsequent return to the discipline of the Atlantic Pact in 1969) but under the premises of pod er to operate freely within the Alliance and maintain nuclear independence, being in short “a supportive but autonomous ally.” Likewise, the installation by the US in the Navarrese Pyrenees of a radar base (Gorramendi) to listen to the whispers of the Elysee, as well as a subsequent campaign orchestrated jointly with Russia and China to replace the dollar standard with gold (reissuing the subtle De Gaulle’s financial engineering move of the mid-1970s).

Towards the reaffirmation of European sovereignty?

According to a report by The International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons (ICAN), the French Defense Law approved in 2018 foresees spending on nuclear deterrence for the Quinquennium 20212025 close to 30,000 million Euros because although in January 2021 the International Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TIAN), France abstained from ratifying it after stating that said Treaty “is inadequate in the context of current international security” while demanding “a realistic approach to disarmament that is carried out step by step ”. The responsibility of the armed forces is shared by the President and the Prime Minister according to the French Constitution of 1958, but a 1962 decree only attributes to the President the ability to authorize the use of nuclear weapons. Remember that the “Force de Frappe” was born in 1960 as a result of the proclamation of the V French Republic by General De Gaulle. and it was conceived as one of the key elements of the country’s economic, diplomatic and military independence from the two great powers US-USSR faced in the Cold War.

Today, the French atomic arsenal reaches 300 warheads after the end of the last century with the withdrawal of all ground-based medium-range nuclear missiles (IRBM models SSBS S3) and short-range nuclear missiles (SRBM) model Pluto. and the nuclear tests in the Polynesian atolls will be abolished and it will base its deterrence power on the Rafaele strategic bombings and on the Triomphant-class ballistic nuclear submarines (SSBN) that will be replaced in 2030 by the newest third-generation nuclear missile submarine SNLE 3G that should be operational until 2070.
Finally, after the formation of the new Government in Germany, we could witness the strengthening of the Franco-German Axis as a result of a belated reaffirmation of French and German national sovereignties, (reviving the Elysee Treaty between De Gaulle and Adenauer (1963). Franco-German entente will combine preferential energy agreements with Russia with the revitalization of nuclear energy and the extraordinary development of renewable energies and will be the European political-economic reference for the next five-year period, not being ruled out the redesign of a new European cartography that would involve the settlement of the current European Union and its replacement by the European of the Six (France, Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, Holland and Italy), while the rest of the peripheral and emerging European countries will remain gravitating in their orbital rings.

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Germán Gorráiz López

Germán Gorráiz López is a political analyst writing on economic and geopolitical issues. His articles appear in a number of publications in Europe and the United States.

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