Is Donald Trump’s re-election in danger?

The “teleological scenario” would be one in which “the purpose of the creative processes were planned by finite models that could intermodel or simulate various alternative futures and in which intention, purpose and foresight prevailed, but after Donald’s triumph Trump in the US Presidential elections, we will witness the emergence of the “teleonomic scenario” that will be marked by extreme doses of volatility.

COVID-19, economic recession and racial segregation

The frivolization of the coronavirus by Trump as well as his delay in adopting surgical measures in the main foci of transmission of the coronavirus in the United States have resulted in a real nightmare with its consequent side effects in the form of a trail of deaths (more than 100,000 deaths) ), collapse of medical services, paralysis of productive activity and recession of the US economy. Likewise, the collapse of the oil price would have caused nearly 200 bankruptcy declarations of companies dedicated to shale with an accumulated debt of nearly $ 120,000 million that will subsequently affect the income statement of large banks such as JP Morgan, Bank of America, Citigroup and Wells Fargo and that could lead to a new financial crisis in the future.

Thus, the inaction of the companies would have triggered a stratospheric increase in unemployment to 24 million unemployed, which together with the foreseeable stock market crash on Wall Street will end up diluting the beneficial effects of Donald Trump’s economic policy and causing the disaffection of population segment of its voters (40% of the electorate) in the next Presidential elections in November.

On the other hand, the explosion of urban violence in the city of Minneapolis after the brutal death by asphyxiation of a defenseless George Floyd in a new excessive and clearly racist action by the public order forces, caused the metropolitan areas with high rates African American population erupted in massive mobilizations.

This would be framed in its new electoral slogan for the November Presidential elections (“The President of Law and Order ”) that would imply Trump’s desire to become a tyrant, making the prophetic words of Father Founder James Madison a reality, who in issue 47 of the Federalist essay, stated that“ the accumulation of all powers , legislative, executive, and judicial, in the same hands and if it is hereditary, self-appointed, or elective, it can be equated to the same definition of tyranny ”.

Thus, the attempt to militarize the entire country would have caused concern in the dominant US establishment and would have its expression in the statements of Defense Secretary Mark Sper, who is opposed to the application of the Insurrection Law after stating that “the racism is real in the country and we must do what we can to recognize it, stand up to it and eradicate it ”and the media eruption of ex-Defense Secretary of the Trump Administration, former Navy General James Mattis, acquires special relevance in accusing Trump to “try to divide us and the need to unite without him, taking advantage of the forces inherent in our civil society.” and the establishment would have already considered Donald Trump amortized. So, the latest opinion polls show a majority repudiation of American society in the face of Donald Trump’s management of the COVID-19 pandemic and a worrying drop in popularity on the eve of the Presidential Elections in which Joe Biden would already be ahead of him. at 14 points.

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Germán Gorráiz López

Germán Gorráiz López is a political analyst writing on economic and geopolitical issues. His articles appear in a number of publications in Europe and the United States.

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