Macron and the new Europe

In the event of being re-elected President in the Presidential elections in the spring of 2022, Macron will try to catalyze the chauvinism of the French by restoring the atavism of la Grandeur, a doctrine that would combine the cult of economic, political and military independence from France with the consolidation of the mission of the Nation and of French culture in the world.

Thus, Macron will assume the decision-making power in Defense and Foreign Affairs, which will become “the reserved domain of the President” and will adopt an “activist” approach in international affairs, getting personally involved and having “the commitment to humanitarian intervention and the increase in the specific weight of France in World Geopolitics as the backbone of its foreign policy”, with which domestic policy will be reduced to a mere instrument of foreign policy that serves as a catalyst for the values of la Grandeur. France’s exit from the military structures of NATO and the revitalization of La Francophonie as a political and economic entity on the world stage on the horizon of 2025.

Since De Gaulle, resistance to US leadership has been a factor in the foreign policy of all French presidents, but the discrepancy will only be formal, as was proven with De Gaulle’s support for the United States in the Cuban Missile Crisis. (1962) and in its subsequent return to the discipline of the Atlantic Pact in 1969) but under the premises of being able to operate freely within the Alliance and maintain nuclear independence, being in short “a supportive but autonomous ally”.

Likewise, the installation by the US in the Navarrese Pyrenees of a radar base (Gorramendi) to listen to the whispers of the Elysée, as well as a subsequent campaign orchestrated jointly with Russia and China to replace the dollar standard with gold (reissuing the subtle De Gaulle’s financial engineering move in the mid-1970s) and the signing of the Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) with China that would allow Sino-European joint ventures direct access to the Chinese market and technology transfer with the commitment of the Chinese Government to ensure environmental sustainability, labor rights and greater regulatory transparency of these companies.

Macron will take advantage of the EU Presidency that starts in January 2022 to promote the initiative of the European Defense Agency, a defensive entity that will mean cutting the umbilical cord with the US that represented NATO and that will be made up of the countries in the area of influence origin of the Franco-German Axis (Holland, Denmark, Norway, Belgium, Luxembourg and Italy), the result of the reaffirmation of French and German national sovereignty as a defensive strategy against the drift of the once “American partner”, (reviving the Elysée Treaty between De Gaulle and Adenauer (1963).

This would implicitly imply the need for “European technological and military sovereignty” that would pivot on the French nuclear “Force de Frappe”, the European sixth-generation fighter in which Airbus and Dassault participate and the brand-new third-generation nuclear missile submarine SNLE 3G, a thesis that will be promoted at the NATO Summit to be held in Madrid in July 2022 and that may It could suppose the beginning of the disappearance of a NATO that in the words of Macron to the weekly The Economist “is brain dead”.

Likewise, after the formation of the new Government in Germany, we could witness the strengthening of the Franco-German Axis as a result of a late reaffirmation of French and German national sovereignty, (reviving the Elysee Treaty between De Gaulle and Adenauer (1963). Franco-German entente will combine the preferential energy agreements with Russia with the revitalization of nuclear energy and the extraordinary development of renewable energies and will be the European political-economic benchmark for the next five years, not ruling out the redesign of a new European cartography that would entail the settlement of the current European Union and its replacement by the European Union of Six (France, Germany, Belgium, Luxembourg, Holland and Italy), while the rest of peripheral and emerging European countries will remain gravitating in their orbital rings.

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Germán Gorráiz López

Germán Gorráiz López is a political analyst writing on economic and geopolitical issues. His articles appear in a number of publications in Europe and the United States.

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