Joe Biden and the return of the Kennan Doctrine

With Joe Biden we could witness the return of the geopolitical thesis of George Kennan, diplomat and adviser to the United States in the 1940s and ideologist of the so-called policy of containment of the USSR, who affirmed that “to say that the overthrow of hostile regimes the US is the main objective of the US intelligence services, it is an open secret ”, a doctrine that could have its expression in the foreseeable defenestration of Al Assad and Erdogan.

Towards the Balkanization of Syria

Zbigniew Brzezinski, former White House national security adviser under the presidency of Jimmy Carter, warned of the dangers of an intervention in Syria and the risk of a supposed victory for the rebels after stating that “I fear that the situation in Syria move towards an ineffective US intervention “and express their perplexity” after the CIA decision to destabilize Syria and overthrow its government when the rebels are more hostile to us than Al Assad. “With Joe Biden, the strategy designed would continue by General Martin Dempsey, chief of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff with the then Chief of Staff of the Israel Defense Army, Benny Gantz and who would count on Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Turkey and Qatar as necessary collaborators to break the Axis Tehran-Damascus-Beirut and force Iran to give up its nuclear power aspirations.

Also, according to the Israeli daily Haaretz, “Iran will try to increase c considerably its presence in Syria by establishing an air base and a naval base ”, which could turn Syria into the continental aircraft carrier of Iran and its allied group Hezbollah, something unacceptable for Israel that would be forced to sleep with its most staunch enemies. Likewise, the energy cooperation agreement signed in 2011 between Iraq, Iran and Syria for the construction of the gas pipeline from South Pars to Homms would connect Iran with the Mediterranean Sea and would relativize the strategic importance of the Trans-Adriatic Gas Pipeline Project (TAP), (substitute for the failed Nabucco gas pipeline projected by the US to transport Azeri gas to Europe through Turkey), as well as the relevant role of the Arab monarchies of the Gulf as suppliers of crude oil to the West, all of which would explain the desire of Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Turkey for defenestrating Al-Asad, within the role assigned to them as pawns of the geostrategic game that we will be able to contemplate in the next five years.

Consequently, Al Asad could become an insurmountable obstacle to the design of the new cartography of the Middle East, so Putin and Biden could reach a secret agreement at the Summit to be held in June between the two leaders to sacrifice it in order to achieve the pacification of the Syrian hornet’s nest (after the eviction of ISIS troops that will extend their tentacles towards Libya and the Maghreb) in exchange for the cessation of economic sanctions against Russia and the implementation of a new status quo in Ukraine that will mean the division of Ukraine into two almost symmetrical halves (South and East of the country, including Crimea, under the Russian orbit) while the Center and West of present-day Ukraine will sail in the wake of the EU. Subsequently, we will witness the partition of Syria into three parts. Thus we will have Alawite Syria, a Russian protectorate that would span from the Mediterranean coast to Aleppo, Syrian Kurdistan under the tutelage of the US and the Sunni area of southern Syrian that would be encompassed in the new Syrian-Iraqi Sunistan, which together with the division of Iraq would consecrate the triumph of Israel’s efforts to balkanize Syria and Iraq, leaving only the theocratic Shiite regime of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei as the future target of Brzezinski’s balkanizing strategy.

Erdogan’s delusion

Erdogan refused to participate in the Western sanctions against Moscow and bought HQ-9 anti-aircraft defense missiles from China and expressed his desire to integrate into the New Silk Road allowing investments from the Industrial and Commercial Bank of China (ICBC) so that Erdogan would be an obstacle to the design of the new US doctrine. In effect, Erdogan’s new geopolitical doctrine aims to stop gravitating in the Western orbit and become a regional power, implying that loyalty to Anglo-Jewish interests in the Middle East would be in question due to Erdogan’s fervent support for the faction. Palestinian Hamas and the subsequent confrontation with Israel as well as the all-out war declared against the Kurdish PPK and its Syrian ally the PYD that would clash with the new geopolitical strategy of the US.

Thus, Erdogan’s obsession would be to prevent the emergence of a Kurdish autonomy in Syria that serves as a platform for the PKK, which is why the Turkish Congress would have approved a law that allows the Turkish Army (TSK) to enter Syria and Iraq to combat “groups terrorists ”, a euphemism that would encompass not so much ISIS as the PKK and the Kurdish-Syrian PYD, ally and brother of the PKK.

The Turkish-Syrian border would be the natural way for jihadist groups to stock up on weapons and pay for the maintenance of their military operations through the sale of oil at ridiculous prices, terms recognized by General Wesley Clark who, according to Hezbollah’s Lebanese television (Almanar ) acknowledged that “Turkey supports the so-called Islamic State (IS) although it will never recognize it” but the Russian bombers on the ISIS oil tanks would represent a missile on the waterline of the huge profits obtained by Turkey through the resale of crude exported by the jihadists so that Erdogan’s political myopia would have led him to plan the downing of the Russian SU-24 fighter.

Likewise, the Turkish intervention in Libya to install a military base that will facilitate the control of the Mediterranean gas routes and thus torpedo the construction of the EastMed underwater gas pipeline, (a joint initiative of Greece, Cyprus and Israel to transport gas from the oil fields of the South-Eastern Mediterranean to Europe) and to become, together with Russia, the sole suppliers of gas to the European Union. In this context, invoking international law, Turkey demanded from Greece and Cyprus an Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), to exploit the important gas reserves in the area, an attempt that collided with the frontal opposition of France that sent military ships to the area.

With which Erdogan would have earned the enmity of Macron, Israel and the rest of the European Union. All this, coupled with the collapse of the Turkish lira against the USD dollar (14% this year) and popular discontent with the looming economic recession, could cause the Turkish army (TSK) to carry out a new “virtual” coup. or “postmodern” that would end Erdogan’s mandate, (recalling the ‘soft coup’ of 1997, when Kemalist generals seized power from the government of President Necmettin Erbakanpor, who led an Islamist coalition). This coup would have the blessings of Washington and Moscow as Erdogan ceased to be a useful pawn in the framework of the new world geopolitical scenario that emerged after the return to the recurrent endemism of the Cold War between the US and Russia, leaving Syria and Turkey as continental aircraft carriers of Russia and the US respectively.

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Germán Gorráiz López

Germán Gorráiz López is a political analyst writing on economic and geopolitical issues. His articles appear in a number of publications in Europe and the United States.

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