The World Bank, the IMF and the third wave of the recession

According to the ILO, since 2009 there would be 10 million more unemployed in the world and by 2,022, the total number of unemployed would be 198 million (5% of the active population), coupled with a deficit of 75,000 million dollars in the climate budgets of poor countries. Likewise, according to Intermón Oxfam, about 10% of the world’s population would live in absolute poverty, so the next Spring Meeting of the World Bank and the IMF should aim to boost the fragile and incipient global economic recovery, promote a productive capacity diversified and guarantee a balanced evolution of income.

However, the phenomenon of economic globalization has ensured that all the rational elements of the economy are interrelated with each other due to the consolidation of oligopolies, technological convergence and tacit corporate agreements, so that the runaway inflation of the US economy could accelerate the rise in dollar rates and the reduction of the Fed’s massive bond purchase program (tapering). This, coupled with the new omicron variant, the coronavirus could cause the systemic crisis to end up weighing down the incipient and fragile world economic recovery and leading to scenarios of secular economic stagnation (secular stangantion).

The coronavirus would represent the settlement of the “teleological scenario” in which the purpose of the creative processes were planned by finite models that could intermodel or simulate various alternative futures and in which intention, purpose and foresight prevailed, as well as their substitution by the “teleonomic scenario”, marked by an extreme dose of volatility and by the establishment of the khaos or void that occupies a hole in the cosmic nothingness. By khaos we understand something unpredictable and that escapes the myopic vision that only our eyes can sketch in the face of events that escape the known parameters, which is why we inevitably resort to the term “butterfly effect” to try to explain the dizzying conjunction of centripetal and centrifugal forces. that will end up configuring the disjointed puzzle of orderly chaos that is brewing.

The aforementioned “butterfly effect” transferred to complex systems such as the Prevention of Epidemics and the Securities Market would have as a collateral effect the impossibility of detecting an immediate future in advance. Thus, the quantum models they use would be only simulations based on previous models, with which the inclusion of only one incorrect variable or the sudden appearance of an unforeseen variable causes the margin of error of these models to be amplified in each unit of simulated time until even exceeding the stratospheric limit of one hundred percent, of which the black swan of the coronavirus would be a paradigm.

The Black Swan theory was developed by Nicholas Taleb in his book “The Black Swan (2010) in which he attempts to explain” the psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the strange event in historical issues ”, which would explain the traumatic shock caused in society by the outbreak of coronavirus. Thus, the existing psychosis due to the new variants of COVID-19 will cause large investors to feel altitude sickness for the first time, which will lead them to reduce their exposure to risk and will make it easier for bears to rise with the helm of the ship. world stock market, leading to a selling psychosis that will eventually trigger the bursting of the current stock market bubble, thus once again fulfilling Keynes’s maxim “Markets can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.”

However, the real possibility of a new stock market crash would have gone unnoticed by most Rating Agencies due to the disconnection with reality (coronavirus epidemic) that would lead them to justify the irrational exuberance of the markets, with which it would be fulfilled the famous phrase of the iconoclast John Kenneth Galbraiht. “There are two kinds of economists: those who have no idea and those who don’t even know that.” Said stock market explosion will lead to the ruin of small and medium investors still dazzled by the lights of the stratosphere (Theory of the dumbest) and will also have as collateral effects the financial starvation of companies and the subsequent devaluation of the currencies of countless countries to increase their exports, not being ruled out the birth of a new economic paradigm after the advent of the Third Wave of the Recession that will lead to a return to watertight compartments in the world economy on the horizon of the next decade.

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Germán Gorráiz López

Germán Gorráiz López is a political analyst writing on economic and geopolitical issues. His articles appear in a number of publications in Europe and the United States.

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